Climate Change, Grape Phenology and Frost Risk in Southeast England

Llanaj, C.; McGregor, G.

Abstract

Background and Aims: Cultivation of grapevines in England is expected to benefit under climate change. Yet assessments of future wine-climates remain undeveloped. Accordingly, this study assesses how climate change might modify frost risk for Chardonnay in the Southeast England viticulture region. Methods and Results: Cold-bias corrected climate projections from the UKCP18 Regional (12 km) perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) climate model under RCP8.5 are applied with phenological models to determine how frost risk and the timing of key grapevine phenophases might alter under climate change. Notwithstanding the uncertainties associated with projections of key viticulture related bioclimate variables, last spring frost is found to advance at a greater rate than budbreak indicating a general decrease in frost risk. Conclusions: Although projections point to an improving climate for viticulture across Southeast England frost will remain a risk for viticulture albeit at a reduced level compared to the present. Further the strong cold-bias found for temperature simulations used in this study needs to be given careful consideration when using the UKCP18 projections for climate change viticulture impact assessments. Significance of the Study: This study highlights the present sensitivity of viticulture to climate variability and the inherent uncertainty associated with making future projections of wine-climate under climate change.

Citation

Llanaj, C., & McGregor, G. (2022). Climate Change, Grape Phenology and Frost Risk in Southeast England. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 2022, Article 9835317. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/9835317

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jul 1, 2022
• Online Publication Date: Dec 8, 2022
• Publication Date: Dec 8, 2022
• Deposit Date: Aug 16, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: May 23, 2023
• Journal: Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research
• Print ISSN: 1322-7130
• Electronic ISSN: 1755-0238
• Publisher: Wiley
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 2022
• Article Number: 9835317
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/9835317
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1193827