Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: a case study of an onshore wind project

Mohamed, Emad; Gerami-Seresht, Nima; Hague, Stephen; Chehouri, Adam; AbouRizk, Simaan

Abstract

Although many quantitative risk assessment models have been proposed in literature, their use in construction practice remain limited due to a lack of domain-specific models, tools, and application examples. This is especially true in wind farm construction, where the state-of-the-art integrated Monte Carlo simulation and critical path method (MCS–CPM) risk assessment approach has yet to be demonstrated. The present case study is the first reported application of the MCS–CPM method for risk assessment in wind farm construction and is the first case study to consider correlations between cost and schedule impacts of risk factors using copulas. MCS–CPM provided reasonable risk assessment results for a wind farm project, and its use in practice is recommended. To facilitate the practical application of quantitative risk assessment methods, this case study provides a much-needed analytical generalization of MCS–CPM, offering application examples, discussion of expected results, and recommendations to wind farm construction practitioners.

Citation

Mohamed, E., Gerami-Seresht, N., Hague, S., Chehouri, A., & AbouRizk, S. (2022). Domain-specific risk assessment using integrated simulation: a case study of an onshore wind project. Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, 49(5), 770-782. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2021-0099

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jul 10, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Jul 21, 2021
• Publication Date: 2022-05
• Deposit Date: Feb 7, 2023
• Journal: Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering
• Print ISSN: 0315-1468
• Electronic ISSN: 1208-6029
• Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 49
• Issue: 5
• Pages: 770-782
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2021-0099
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1181032