Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy

Sheehy, S.; Edwards, G.; Dent, C.J.; Kazemtabrizi, B.; Troffaes, M.C.M.; Tindemans, S.

Abstract

This paper presents results on variability of out-turn shortfalls about the expected value indices which are usually presented in resource adequacy studies, for a range of Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) levels and installed wind capacities in a test system generally representative of future Great Britain system scenarios. While the details of results will clearly vary between systems, one very general conclusion is possible. In the results presented, for a given LOLE level, the probability of very severe out-turn in a future peak season is much greater at high installed wind capacity. Thus for this system, as the installed wind capacity increases, a constant level of LOLE cannot be taken as an indicator of an unchanging overall risk profile of the system. This further demonstrates that in any system, LOLE cannot be assumed to be a good summary statistic of risk profile as the installed variable generation (VG) capacity increases, and that it might be necessary to reconsider the near-universal use of expected value risk indices as the main headline indices in utility adequacy studies.

Citation

Sheehy, S., Edwards, G., Dent, C., Kazemtabrizi, B., Troffaes, M., & Tindemans, S. (2016, October). Impact of high wind penetration on variability of unserved energy in power system adequacy. Presented at International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS), Beijing, China

• Presentation Conference Type: Conference Paper (published)
• Conference Name: International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS)
• Start Date: Oct 16, 2016
• End Date: Oct 20, 2016
• Acceptance Date: Jun 15, 2016
• Online Publication Date: Dec 5, 2016
• Publication Date: Dec 5, 2016
• Deposit Date: May 28, 2016
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 15, 2016
• Publisher: Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
• Pages: 1-6
• Book Title: 2016 International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) : Beijing, China, 16-20 October 2016 ; proceedings.
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/pmaps.2016.7764199
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1150603