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Bayes Linear Calibrated Prediction for Complex Systems (2006)
Journal Article
Goldstein, M., & Rougier, J. (2006). Bayes Linear Calibrated Prediction for Complex Systems. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 101(475), 1132-1143. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214506000000203

A calibration-based approach is developed for predicting the behavior of a physical system that is modeled by a computer simulator. The approach is based on Bayes linear adjustment using both system observations and evaluations of the simulator at pa... Read More about Bayes Linear Calibrated Prediction for Complex Systems.

Trade-off sensitive experimental design: a multicriterion, decision theoretic, Bayes linear approach (2006)
Journal Article
Farrow, M., & Goldstein, M. (2006). Trade-off sensitive experimental design: a multicriterion, decision theoretic, Bayes linear approach. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 136(2), 498-526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2004.07.008

We show how mutually utility independent hierarchies, which weigh the various costs of an experiment against benefits expressed through a mixed Bayes linear utility representing the potential gains in knowledge from the experiment, provide a flexible... Read More about Trade-off sensitive experimental design: a multicriterion, decision theoretic, Bayes linear approach.

Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes Graphical Models (2004)
Journal Article
Goldstein, M., & Shaw, S. (2004). Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes Graphical Models. Biometrika, 91(2), 425-446. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/91.2.425

Probability kinematics (Jeffrey, 1965, 1983) furnishes a method for revising a prior probability specification based upon new probabilities over a partition.We develop a corresponding Bayes linear kinematic for a Bayes linear analysis given informati... Read More about Bayes linear kinematics and Bayes linear Bayes Graphical Models.

Moral dominance relations for program comprehension (2003)
Journal Article
Shaw, S., Goldstein, M., Munro, M., & Burd, E. (2003). Moral dominance relations for program comprehension. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 29(9), 851-863. https://doi.org/10.1109/tse.2003.1232289

Dominance trees have been used as a means for reengineering legacy systems into potential reuse candidates. The dominance relation suggests the reuse candidates which are identified by strongly directly dominated subtrees. We review the approach and... Read More about Moral dominance relations for program comprehension.

Bayesian Graphical Models for Software Testing (2002)
Journal Article
Wooff, D., Goldstein, M., & Coolen, F. (2002). Bayesian Graphical Models for Software Testing. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, 28(5), 510-525. https://doi.org/10.1109/tse.2002.1000453

This paper describes a new approach to the problem of software testing. The approach is based on Bayesian graphical models and presents formal mechanisms for the logical structuring of the software testing problem, the probabilistic and statistical t... Read More about Bayesian Graphical Models for Software Testing.

Generalized partition testing via Bayes linear methods (2001)
Journal Article
Coolen, F., Goldstein, M., & Munro, M. (2001). Generalized partition testing via Bayes linear methods. Information and Software Technology, 43(13), 783-793. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0950-5849%2801%2900185-9

This paper explores the use of Bayes linear methods related to partition testing for software. If a partition of the input domain has been defined, the method works without the assumption of homogeneous (revealing) subdomains, and also includes the p... Read More about Generalized partition testing via Bayes linear methods.

Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators (2001)
Journal Article
Craig, P., Goldstein, M., Rougier, J., & Seheult, A. (2001). Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 96(454), 717-729. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214501753168370

Although computer models are often used for forecasting future outcomes of complex systems, the uncertainties in such forecasts are not usually treated formally. We describe a general Bayesian approach for using a computer model or simulator of a com... Read More about Bayesian forecasting for complex systems using computer simulators.

Avoiding foregone conclusions: geometric and foundational analysis of paradoxes of finite additivity (2001)
Journal Article
Goldstein, M. (2001). Avoiding foregone conclusions: geometric and foundational analysis of paradoxes of finite additivity. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 94(1), 73-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0378-3758%2800%2900229-9

We consider an example in which the use of finitely additive probabilities leads to the seemingly paradoxical conclusion that we may reason to a foregone conclusion. We give an informal treatment of this paradox. We then develop a geometric approach... Read More about Avoiding foregone conclusions: geometric and foundational analysis of paradoxes of finite additivity.

A Bayesian Analysis of Fluid Flow in Pipelines (2001)
Journal Article
Rougier, J., & Goldstein, M. (2001). A Bayesian Analysis of Fluid Flow in Pipelines. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C, 50(1), 77-93. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9876.00221

The waterhammer equations are a pair of partial differential equations that describe the behaviour of an incompressible fluid in a pipe-line. We generalize these equations to account for uncertainty in the description of the liquid and the pipe-line,... Read More about A Bayesian Analysis of Fluid Flow in Pipelines.

Bayes linear analysis. (1999)
Book Chapter
Goldstein, M. (1999). Bayes linear analysis. In S. Kotz, C. Read, & D. Banks (Eds.), Encyclopaedia of Statistical Sciences Update Volume 3 (29-34). Wiley