Subversive Witness: The Disruptive Influence of Bayes Theorem on Forensic Science

Lawless, Christopher

Abstract

Bayesian methods are widely used in forensic science to calculate the probative value of evidence through both technological and human computation. This article however challenges the predominant view of Bayesianism as an unproblematic means of assessing hypotheses concerning forensic evidence. Instead, it is argued here that Bayes Theorem subverts the authoritative instrumentality of science and technology as applied to western law. This article critically examines two examples of forensic Bayesianism, and finds that Bayesian methods exposed a series of intractable lacunae, which were alternately revealed to forensic analysts or rendered silent in technical black boxes. Enacting forensic Bayesianism furthermore involved a plurality of situated reasoning practices, sometimes decidedly non-calculative and embodied, and others which rested on questionable and potentially discriminatory ontological assumptions. Rather than functioning as a linear means for mathematically evaluating hypotheses and for representing belief, this article demonstrates how forensic Bayesianism created messy entanglements between evidence, place and subjectivity. Bayesianism destabilised practices of material witnessing by disruptively reconfiguring the relationship between seeing and testifying. These findings raise significant epistemic and ethical questions relating to how western judicial systems control material witnessing, and also add an important note of caution to how other counter-hegemonic forensic practices engage with the calculative.

Citation

Lawless, C. (2025). Subversive Witness: The Disruptive Influence of Bayes Theorem on Forensic Science. Computational Culture,

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jul 8, 2025
• Online Publication Date: Jul 16, 2025
• Publication Date: 2025
• Deposit Date: Jul 16, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 16, 2025
• Journal: Computational Culture
• Electronic ISSN: 2047-2390
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Issue: 10
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/4268342
• Publisher URL: http://computationalculture.net/subversive-witness/