Tail Risks in Credit, Commodity, and Shipping Markets

Gounopoulos, D.; Paltalidis, N.

Abstract

We employ several copula functions to capture conditional and tail dependence during periods of extreme volatility and reverse conditions between shipping, financial, commodity, and credit markets. We find that shocks in the shipping market coincide with dramatic changes in other markets and document the existence of extreme comovements during severe financial conditions. Lower tail dependence exceeds conditional upper tail dependence, indicating that during periods of economic turbulence, dependence increases and the crisis spreads in a domino fashion, causing asymmetric contagion which advances during market downturns. In the postcrisis period, the level of dependence drops systematically and the shipping market becomes more pronouncedly heavy tailed in downward moves. According to the estimated results, accelerated decreases in commodities and prompt variations in volatility provoke accelerated decreases and function as a barometer of shipping market fluctuations.

Citation

Gounopoulos, D., & Paltalidis, N. (2018). Tail Risks in Credit, Commodity, and Shipping Markets. In S. Gong, & K. Cullinane (Eds.), Finance and risk management for international logistics and the supply chain (129-166). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-813830-4.00006-x

• Online Publication Date: Aug 23, 2018
• Publication Date: Aug 23, 2018
• Deposit Date: Jul 13, 2018
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Pages: 129-166
• Book Title: Finance and risk management for international logistics and the supply chain.
• ISBN: 9780128138304
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-813830-4.00006-x
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1635424
• Contract Date: Jun 1, 2018