Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations

Rougier, J.C.

Abstract

This paper describes an approach to computing probabilistic assessments of future climate, using a climate model. It clarifies the nature of probability in this context, and illustrates the kinds of judgements that must be made in order for such a prediction to be consistent with the probability calculus. The climate model is seen as a tool for making probabilistic statements about climate itself, necessarily involving an assessment of the model’s imperfections. A climate event, such as a 2^C increase in global mean temperature, is identified with a region of ‘climate-space’, and the ensemble of model evaluations is used within a numerical integration designed to estimate the probability assigned to that region.

Citation

Rougier, J. (2007). Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations. Climatic Change, 81(3-4), 247-264. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Publication Date: Apr 1, 2007
• Deposit Date: May 1, 2007
• Journal: Climatic Change
• Print ISSN: 0165-0009
• Electronic ISSN: 1573-1480
• Publisher: Springer
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 81
• Issue: 3-4
• Pages: 247-264
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9156-9
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1589356
• Publisher URL: http://www.maths.dur.ac.uk/stats/people/jcr/CCfinal.pdf