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Probability theory of capacity value of additional generation

Zachary, S.; Dent, C.J.

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Authors

S. Zachary

C.J. Dent



Abstract

This paper describes a new probability theory of the capacity value of additional generation in electrical power systems. A closed-form expression for the effective load carrying capability or equivalent firm capacity of a small additional capacity is derived. This depends on the mean and variance of the distribution of available additional generation capacity, and the shape of the distribution of the difference between available existing capacity and demand, near zero margin. The theory extends naturally to the case where the pre-existing background and additional resource are not statistically independent. The theory may be used to explain and confirm the generality of various well-known properties of capacity value results, as is illustrated using Great Britain examples. Of particular note is the common observation that if the distribution for demand is shifted so as to increase the calculated risk, then the capacity value of additional generation increases. The new theory demonstrates that this is not true in general, but rather is a consequence of the shape near zero margin of the probability distribution of the margin of existing generating capacity over demand.

Citation

Zachary, S., & Dent, C. (2012). Probability theory of capacity value of additional generation. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability, 226(1), 33-43. https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x11418288

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date Feb 1, 2012
Deposit Date Jun 13, 2011
Publicly Available Date Jan 29, 2014
Journal Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability
Print ISSN 1748-006X
Electronic ISSN 1748-0078
Publisher SAGE Publications
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 226
Issue 1
Pages 33-43
DOI https://doi.org/10.1177/1748006x11418288
Keywords Capacity credit and value, Wind power, Power system reliability evaluation, Intermittent generation, Variable generation.

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Accepted Journal Article (341 Kb)
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Copyright Statement
The final definitive version of this article has been published in the journal Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers part O : journal of risk and reliability, 226(1), 2012, Copyright © 2014 by Institution of Mechanical Engineers by SAGE Publications Ltd at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers part O : journal of risk and reliability page: http://pio.sagepub.com/ on SAGE Journals Online: http://online.sagepub.com/





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