Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting

Hanretty, Chris; Lauderdale, Benjamin E.; Vivyan, Nick

Abstract

We describe a method for forecasting British general elections by combining national and constituency polling. We reconcile national and constituency estimates through a new swing model.

Citation

Hanretty, C., Lauderdale, B. E., & Vivyan, N. (2016). Combining national and constituency polling for forecasting. Electoral Studies, 41, 239-243. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Sep 27, 2015
• Online Publication Date: Dec 15, 2015
• Publication Date: Mar 1, 2016
• Deposit Date: Sep 29, 2015
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 15, 2017
• Journal: Electoral Studies
• Print ISSN: 0261-3794
• Electronic ISSN: 1873-6890
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 41
• Pages: 239-243
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.019
• Keywords: National polling, Constituency polling, Uniform swing, Generalized normal swing.
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1401862