Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Dura, T; Garner, AJ; Weiss, R; Kopp, RE; Engelhart, SE; Witter, RC; Briggs, RW; Mueller, CS; Nelson, AR; Horton, BP

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise Thumbnail

Authors

T Dura

AJ Garner

R Weiss

RE Kopp

Dr Simon Engelhart simon.e.engelhart@durham.ac.uk
Associate Professor

RC Witter

RW Briggs

CS Mueller

AR Nelson

BP Horton

Abstract

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

Citation

Dura, T., Garner, A., Weiss, R., Kopp, R., Engelhart, S., Witter, R., …Horton, B. (2021). Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise. Nature Communications, 12, Article 7119. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	Nov 22, 2021
Online Publication Date	Dec 8, 2021
Publication Date	2021
Deposit Date	Oct 25, 2021
Publicly Available Date	Dec 8, 2021
Journal	Nature Communications
Publisher	Nature Research
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	12
Article Number	7119
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27445-8

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