Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization

Wilson, Matthew C.; Medzihorsky, Juraj; Maerz, Seraphine F.; Lindenfors, Patrik; Edgell, Amanda B.; Boese, Vanessa A.; Lindberg, Staffan I.

Abstract

This paper introduces a new approach to the quantitative study of democratization. Building on the comparative case-study and large-N literature, it outlines an episode approach that identifies the discrete beginning of a period of political liberalization, traces its progression, and classifies episodes as successful versus different types of failing outcomes, thus avoiding potentially fallacious assumptions of unit homogeneity. We provide a description and analysis of all 383 liberalization episodes from 1900 to 2019, offering new insights on democratic “waves”. We also demonstrate the value of this approach by showing that while several established covariates are valuable for predicting the ultimate outcomes, none explain the onset of a period of liberalization.

Citation

Wilson, M. C., Medzihorsky, J., Maerz, S. F., Lindenfors, P., Edgell, A. B., Boese, V. A., & Lindberg, S. I. (2023). Episodes of liberalization in autocracies: a new approach to quantitatively studying democratization. Political Science Research and Methods, 11(3), 501-520. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.11

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Jul 20, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Jun 15, 2022
• Publication Date: 2023-07
• Deposit Date: Jul 18, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Jul 18, 2022
• Journal: Political Science Research and Methods
• Print ISSN: 2049-8470
• Electronic ISSN: 2049-8489
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 11
• Issue: 3
• Pages: 501-520
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.11
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1197616