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Extremism, segregation and oscillatory states emerge through collective opinion dynamics in a novel agent-based model

Stokes, B.M.; Jackson, S.E.; Garnett, P.; Luo, J.

Extremism, segregation and oscillatory states emerge through collective opinion dynamics in a novel agent-based model Thumbnail


Authors

B.M. Stokes

Profile image of Sam Jackson

Sam Jackson samuel.e.jackson@durham.ac.uk
Assistant Professor

P. Garnett

J. Luo



Abstract

Using mathematics to model the evolution of opinions among interacting agents is a rich and growing field. We present a novel agent-based model that enhances the explanatory power of existing theoretical frameworks, corroborates experimental findings in social psychology, and reflects observed phenomena in contemporary society. Bespoke features of the model include: a measure of pairwise affinity between agents; a memory capacity of the population; and a generalized confidence bound called the interaction threshold, which can be dynamical and heterogeneous. Moreover, the model is applicable to opinion spaces of any dimensionality. Through analytical and numerical investigations, we study the opinion dynamics produced by the model and examine the effects of various model parameters. We prove that as long as every agent interacts with every other, the population will reach an opinion consensus regardless of the initial opinions or parameter values. When interactions are limited to be among agents with similar opinions, segregated opinion clusters can be formed. An opinion drift is also observed in certain settings, leading to collective extremisation of the whole population, which we quantify using a rigorous mathematical measure. We find that collective extremisation is likely if agents cut off connections whenever they move away from the neutral position, effectively isolating themselves from the population. When a population fails to reach a steady state, oscillations of a neutral majority are observed due to the influence exerted by a small number of extreme agents. By carefully interpreting these results, we posit explanations for the mechanisms underlying socio-psychological phenomena such as emergent cooperation and group polarization.

Citation

Stokes, B., Jackson, S., Garnett, P., & Luo, J. (2024). Extremism, segregation and oscillatory states emerge through collective opinion dynamics in a novel agent-based model. The Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 48(1), 42-80. https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.2022.2124246

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Sep 9, 2022
Online Publication Date Oct 9, 2022
Publication Date 2024
Deposit Date Oct 4, 2022
Publicly Available Date Mar 9, 2023
Journal Journal of Mathematical Sociology
Print ISSN 0022-250X
Electronic ISSN 1545-5874
Publisher Taylor and Francis Group
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 48
Issue 1
Pages 42-80
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.2022.2124246
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1190399

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Published Journal Article (Advance online version) (7.3 Mb)
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Publisher Licence URL
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Copyright Statement
Advance online version This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.






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