Evaluation of Synthetic Wind Speed Time Series for Reliability Analysis of Offshore Wind Farms

Smith, C.J.; Crabtree, C.J.; Matthews, P.C.

Abstract

A method for synthesising wind speed time series (WSTS) from limited data is required that can be used for reliability examination of wind farms and maintenance strategies for a range of wind speed scenarios. Key characteristics of the wind resource need to be captured, including energy availability and maintenance weather windows. 4 WSTS simulators were used to produce synthetic WSTS based on benchmark data from a meteorological mast data at the offshore Egmond aan Zee wind farm in the Netherlands. These synthetic WSTS were compared with test criteria to determine their suitability for reliability analysis. This included comparing the synthetic WSTS to the benchmark data in terms of the energy availability in the wind and from a typical turbine, residence time at wind speeds, number of transitions between 1m/s wind speed bins, replication of seasonal characteristics including weather windows, and underlying statistical properties. Based on the chosen criteria, the most appropriate WSTS simulator was the modified Markov process. However, no modelling technique performed best against all criteria and none capture the autocorrelation function (ACF) as closely as desired. Therefore, there is scope for a more advanced technique for wind speed modelling for reliability analysis which combines the best aspects of the models used in this work.

Citation

Smith, C., Crabtree, C., & Matthews, P. (2015, November). Evaluation of Synthetic Wind Speed Time Series for Reliability Analysis of Offshore Wind Farms. Presented at EWEA 2015, Paris, France

• Presentation Conference Type: Conference Paper (published)
• Conference Name: EWEA 2015
• Start Date: Nov 17, 2015
• End Date: Nov 20, 2015
• Acceptance Date: Oct 12, 2015
• Publication Date: Nov 19, 2015
• Deposit Date: Oct 27, 2015
• Publicly Available Date: Nov 12, 2015
• Keywords: Wind speed time series, reliability analysis, weather windows, evaluation criteria.
• Public URL: https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/1153177
• Publisher URL: http://www.ewea.org/annual2015/conference/programme/info2.php?id2=975&id=37%20&ordre=2#top
• Additional Information: Conference dates: 17-20 November 2015