Outputs (51)

Bayesian Emulation for Computer Models with Multiple Partial Discontinuities (2024)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., Owen, J., & Carter, J. (online). Bayesian Emulation for Computer Models with Multiple Partial Discontinuities. Bayesian Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1214/24-BA1456

Computer models are widely used across a range of scientific disciplines to describe various complex physical systems, however to perform full uncertainty quantification we often need to employ emulators. An emulator is a fast statistical construct t... Read More about Bayesian Emulation for Computer Models with Multiple Partial Discontinuities.

Emulation and History Matching using the hmer Package (2024)
Journal Article
Iskauskas, A., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Scarponi, D., McKinley, T. J., White, R. G., & McCreesh, N. (2024). Emulation and History Matching using the hmer Package. Journal of Statistical Software, 109(10), 1–48. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v109.i10

Modeling complex real-world situations such as infectious diseases, geological phenomena, and biological processes can present a dilemma: the computer model (referred to as a simulator) needs to be complex enough to capture the dynamics of the system... Read More about Emulation and History Matching using the hmer Package.

First observation of 28O (2023)
Journal Article
Kondo, Y., Achouri, N. L., Falou, H. A., Atar, L., Aumann, T., Baba, H., …Yoshida, S. (2023). First observation of 28O. Nature, 620(7976), 965-970. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06352-6

Subjecting a physical system to extreme conditions is one of the means often used to obtain a better understanding and deeper insight into its organization and structure. In the case of the atomic nucleus, one such approach is to investigate isotopes... Read More about First observation of 28O.

Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer (2023)
Journal Article
Scarponi, D., Iskauskas, A., Clark, R. A., Vernon, I., McKinley, T. J., Goldstein, M., Mukandavire, C., Deol, A., Weerasuriya, C., Bakker, R., White, R. G., & McCreesh, N. (2023). Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer. Epidemics, 43, Article 100678. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100678

Infectious disease models are widely used by epidemiologists to improve the understanding of transmission dynamics and disease natural history, and to predict the possible effects of interventions. As the complexity of such models increases, however,... Read More about Demonstrating multi-country calibration of a tuberculosis model using new history matching and emulation package - hmer.

Gaussian Process Models for Well Placement Optimisation (2022)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Carter, J., & Vernon, I. (2022, December). Gaussian Process Models for Well Placement Optimisation. Presented at ECMOR 2022, The Hague, Netherlands

A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses (2022)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., & Gosling, J. (2023). A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses. Bayesian Analysis, 18(4), 1367-1399. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-ba1340

We harness the power of Bayesian emulation techniques, designed to aid the analysis of complex computer models, to examine the structure of complex Bayesian analyses themselves. These techniques facilitate robust Bayesian analyses and/or sensitivity... Read More about A Bayesian Computer Model Analysis of Robust Bayesian Analyses.

Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208Pb to nuclear forces (2022)
Journal Article
Hu, B., Jaing, W., Miyagi, T., Sun, Z., Ekström, A., Forssén, C., Hagen, G., Holt, J. D., Papenbrock, T., Stroberg, S. R., & Vernon, I. (2022). Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208Pb to nuclear forces. Nature Physics, 18(10), 1196-1200. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41567-022-01715-8

Heavy atomic nuclei have an excess of neutrons over protons, which leads to the formation of a neutron skin whose thickness is sensitive to details of the nuclear force. This links atomic nuclei to properties of neutron stars, thereby relating object... Read More about Ab initio predictions link the neutron skin of 208Pb to nuclear forces.

Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE (2022)
Journal Article
Vernon, I., Owen, J., Aylett-Bullock, J., Cuestra-Lazaro, C., Frawley, J., Quera-Bofarull, A., Sedgewick, A., Shi, D., Truong, H., Turner, M., Walker, J., Caulfield, T., Fong, K., & Krauss, F. (2022). Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 380(2233), Article 20220039. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2022.0039

We analyse JUNE: a detailed model of Covid-19 transmission with high spatial and demographic resolution, developed as part of the RAMP initiative. JUNE requires substantial computational resources to evaluate, making model calibration and general unc... Read More about Bayesian Emulation and History Matching of JUNE.

Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model (2022)
Journal Article
Dunne, M., Mohammadi, H., Challenor, P., Borgo, R., Porphyre, T., Vernon, I., Firat, E. E., Turkay, C., Torsney-Weir, T., Goldstein, M., Reeve, R., Fang, H., & Swallow, B. (2022). Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model. Epidemics, 39, Article 100574. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100574

Uncertainty quantification is a formal paradigm of statistical estimation that aims to account for all uncertainties inherent in the modelling process of real-world complex systems. The methods are directly applicable to stochastic models in epidemio... Read More about Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model.

Efficient Emulation of Computer Models Utilising Multiple Known Boundaries of Differing Dimension (2022)
Journal Article
Jackson, S. E., & Vernon, I. (2023). Efficient Emulation of Computer Models Utilising Multiple Known Boundaries of Differing Dimension. Bayesian Analysis, 18(1), 165-191. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-ba1304

Emulation has been successfully applied across a wide variety of scientific disciplines for efficiently analysing computationally intensive models. We develop known boundary emulation strategies which utilise the fact that, for many computer models,... Read More about Efficient Emulation of Computer Models Utilising Multiple Known Boundaries of Differing Dimension.