Outputs (4)

Towards Data-Conditional Simulation for ABC Inference in Stochastic Differential Equations (2024)
Journal Article
Jovanovski, P., Golightly, A., & Picchini, U. (online). Towards Data-Conditional Simulation for ABC Inference in Stochastic Differential Equations. Bayesian Analysis, https://doi.org/10.1214/24-ba1467

We develop a Bayesian inference method for the parameters of discretely-observed stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Inference is challenging for most SDEs, due to the analytical intractability of the likelihood function. Nevertheless, forward... Read More about Towards Data-Conditional Simulation for ABC Inference in Stochastic Differential Equations.

Bayesian inference for a spatio-temporal model of road traffic collision data (2024)
Journal Article
Hewett, N., Golightly, A., Fawcett, L., & Thorpe, N. (2024). Bayesian inference for a spatio-temporal model of road traffic collision data. Journal of Computational Science, 80, Article 102326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocs.2024.102326

Improving road safety is hugely important with the number of deaths on the world’s roads remaining unacceptably high; an estimated 1.35 million people die each year (WHO, 2020). Current practice for treating collision hotspots is almost always reacti... Read More about Bayesian inference for a spatio-temporal model of road traffic collision data.

Using extreme value theory to evaluate the leading pedestrian interval road safety intervention (2024)
Journal Article
Hewett, N., Fawcett, L., Golightly, A., & Thorpe, N. (2024). Using extreme value theory to evaluate the leading pedestrian interval road safety intervention. Stat, 13(2), Article e676. https://doi.org/10.1002/sta4.676

Improving road safety is hugely important with the number of deaths on the world's roads remaining unacceptably high; an estimated 1.3 million people die each year as a result of road traffic collisions. Current practice for treating collision hotspo... Read More about Using extreme value theory to evaluate the leading pedestrian interval road safety intervention.

Estimating the reproduction number, R0, from individual-based models of tree disease spread (2024)
Journal Article
Wadkin, L. E., Holden, J., Ettelaie, R., Holmes, M. J., Smith, J., Golightly, A., …Baggaley, A. W. (2024). Estimating the reproduction number, R0, from individual-based models of tree disease spread. Ecological Modelling, 489, Article 110630. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110630

Tree populations worldwide are facing an unprecedented threat from a variety of tree diseases and invasive pests. Their spread, exacerbated by increasing globalisation and climate change, has an enormous environmental, economic and social impact. Com... Read More about Estimating the reproduction number, R0, from individual-based models of tree disease spread.