All Outputs (5)

Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters? (2011)
Journal Article
Bolger, F., Stranieri, A., Wright, G., & Yearwood, J. (2011). Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1671-1680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.002

Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from Social Psychological Research (2011)
Journal Article
Bolger, F., & Wright, G. (2011). Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from Social Psychological Research. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1500-1513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.007

The Delphi technique was largely developed to avoid the problems of freely interacting groups such as dominant individuals and pressure to conform to the majority view. Our review of the Social Psychological literature reveals some obstacles to Delph... Read More about Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from Social Psychological Research.

Asymmetric dominance and phantom decoy effects in games (2007)
Journal Article
Colman, A., Pulford, B., & Bolger, F. (2007). Asymmetric dominance and phantom decoy effects in games. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 104(2), 193-206. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2007.03.001

In individual choices between alternatives x and y, the availability of a third alternative z, judged inferior to x but not to y, tends to increase preferences for x. Two experiments investigated corresponding strategic asymmetric dominance effects i... Read More about Asymmetric dominance and phantom decoy effects in games.

An empirical test of the relative validity of expert and lay judgements of risk (2002)
Journal Article
Wright, G., Bolger, F., & Rowe, G. (2002). An empirical test of the relative validity of expert and lay judgements of risk. Risk Analysis, 22(6), 1107-1122. https://doi.org/10.1111/1539-6924.00276

This article investigates how accurately experts (underwriters) and lay persons (university students) judge the risks posed by life-threatening events. Only one prior study (Slovic, Fischhoff, & Lichtenstein, 1985) has previously investigated the ver... Read More about An empirical test of the relative validity of expert and lay judgements of risk.

Collecting information: optimizing outcomes, screening options, or facilitating discrimination? (2001)
Journal Article
Harvey, N., & Bolger, F. (2001). Collecting information: optimizing outcomes, screening options, or facilitating discrimination?. Quarterly journal of experimental psychology. A, 54(1), 269-301. https://doi.org/10.1080/02724980042000110

Collection of information prior to a decision may be integrated into a compensatory choice process; if it is, the information packet that is collected should be the one that produces the highest net gain. Alternatively,information may be collected in... Read More about Collecting information: optimizing outcomes, screening options, or facilitating discrimination?.