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Outputs (85)

Spatial variation in spring arrival patterns of Afro‐Palaearctic bird migration across Europe (2024)
Journal Article
Border, J. A., Boersch‐Supan, P. H., Pearce‐Higgins, J. W., Hewson, C. M., Howard, C., Stephens, P. A., …Baillie, S. R. (2024). Spatial variation in spring arrival patterns of Afro‐Palaearctic bird migration across Europe. Global Ecology and Biogeography, Article e13850. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13850

Aim: Geographical patterns of migrant species arrival have been little studied, despite their relevance to global change responses. Here, we quantify continent-wide inter-specific variation in spatio-temporal patterns of spring arrival of 30 common m... Read More about Spatial variation in spring arrival patterns of Afro‐Palaearctic bird migration across Europe.

Monitoring wader breeding productivity (2023)
Journal Article
Jarrett, D., Lehikoinen, A., & Willis, S. (2023). Monitoring wader breeding productivity. Ibis: International Journal of Avian Science, https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13298

A robust understanding of the mechanisms driving demographic change in wild animal populations is fundamental to the delivery of effective conservation interventions. Demographic change can be driven by variation in adult survival, recruitment of juv... Read More about Monitoring wader breeding productivity.

Explaining and predicting animal migration under global change (2023)
Journal Article
Howard, C., Mason, T. H. E., Baillie, S. R., Border, J., Hewson, C. M., Houston, A. I., …Stephens, P. A. (2023). Explaining and predicting animal migration under global change. Diversity and Distributions, https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13797

Many migratory species are declining due to global environmental change. Yet, their complex annual cycles make unravelling the impacts of potential drivers such as climate and land-use change on migrations a major challenge. Identifying where, when a... Read More about Explaining and predicting animal migration under global change.

Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability (2023)
Journal Article
Howard, C., Marjakangas, E., Morán-Ordóñez, A., Milanesi, P., Abuladze, A., Aghababyan, K., …Willis, S. G. (2023). Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability. Nature Communications, 14(1), Article 4304. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39093-1

Climate change has been associated with both latitudinal and elevational shifts in species’ ranges. The extent, however, to which climate change has driven recent range shifts alongside other putative drivers remains uncertain. Here, we use the chang... Read More about Local colonisations and extinctions of European birds are poorly explained by changes in climate suitability.

The phenology and clutch size of UK Blue Tits does not differ with woodland composition (2023)
Journal Article
Branston, C. J., Whittingham, M. J., Phillimore, A. B., Leech, D., & Willis, S. G. (2023). The phenology and clutch size of UK Blue Tits does not differ with woodland composition. Ibis: International Journal of Avian Science, https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.13248

The deciduous tree-herbivorous caterpillar-insectivorous bird food chain is a well-studied system for investigating the impacts of climate change across trophic levels. To date, across Europe, most attention has focused on the impacts of increasing s... Read More about The phenology and clutch size of UK Blue Tits does not differ with woodland composition.

Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale (2023)
Journal Article
Marjakangas, E., Bosco, L., Versluijs, M., Xu, Y., Santangeli, A., Holopainen, S., …Lehikoinen, A. (2023). Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120(23), Article 213330120. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2213330120

Species’ range shifts and local extinctions caused by climate change lead to community composition changes. At large spatial scales, ecological barriers, such as biome boundaries, coastlines, and elevation, can influence a community's ability to shif... Read More about Ecological barriers mediate spatiotemporal shifts of bird communities at a continental scale.

Drivers of the changing abundance of European birds at two spatial scales (2023)
Journal Article
Gregory, R., Eaton, M. A., Burfield, I., Grice, P. V., Howard, C., Klvaňová, A., …Burns, F. (2023). Drivers of the changing abundance of European birds at two spatial scales. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 378(1881), Article 20220198. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2022.0198

Detecting biodiversity change and identifying its causes is challenging because biodiversity is multifaceted and temporal data often contain bias. Here, we model temporal change in species' abundance and biomass by using extensive data describing the... Read More about Drivers of the changing abundance of European birds at two spatial scales.

Remote monitoring of short-term body mass variation in savanna ungulates (2023)
Journal Article
Fuentes-Allende, N., Stephens, P., MacTavish, L., MacTavish, D., & Willis, S. (2023). Remote monitoring of short-term body mass variation in savanna ungulates. Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation, https://doi.org/10.1002/rse2.338

Large herbivores in seasonal environments often experience mass variation due to temporal changes in the availability of critical resources like water and forage, as well as due to breeding events. Yet the documentation of mass variation in mammals o... Read More about Remote monitoring of short-term body mass variation in savanna ungulates.

dynamicSDM: An R package for species geographical distribution and abundance modelling at high spatiotemporal resolution (2023)
Journal Article
Dobson, R., Challinor, A. J., Cheke, R. A., Jennings, S., Willis, S. G., & Dallimer, M. (2023). dynamicSDM: An R package for species geographical distribution and abundance modelling at high spatiotemporal resolution. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 14(5), 1190-1199. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.14101

1. Species distribution models (SDM) are widely applied to understand changing species geographical distribution and abundance patterns. However, existing SDM tools are inherently static and inadequate for modelling species distributions that are dri... Read More about dynamicSDM: An R package for species geographical distribution and abundance modelling at high spatiotemporal resolution.

Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers (2022)
Journal Article
Voskamp, A., Hof, C., Biber, M. F., Böhning-Gaese, K., Hickler, T., Niamir, A., …Fritz, S. A. (2022). Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 289(1979), https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2021.2184

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. As abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities vary, species-specific responses have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate the ensuing impacts on species assemblages. Here, we investig... Read More about Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers.

A framework for climate change adaptation indicators for the natural environment (2022)
Journal Article
Pearce-Higgins, J., Antão, L., Bates, R., Bowgen, K., Bradshaw, C., Duffield, S., …Morecroft, M. (2022). A framework for climate change adaptation indicators for the natural environment. Ecological Indicators, 136, Article 108690. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108690

Impacts of climate change on natural and human systems will become increasingly severe as the magnitude of climate change increases. Climate change adaptation interventions to address current and projected impacts are thus paramount. Yet, evidence on... Read More about A framework for climate change adaptation indicators for the natural environment.

Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity (2022)
Journal Article
Stewart, P. S., Voskamp, A., Santini, L., Biber, M. F., Devenish, A. J., Hof, C., …Tobias, J. A. (2022). Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity. Ecology Letters, 25(3), 673-685. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13830

Climate change is predicted to drive geographical range shifts, leading to fluctuations in species richness (SR) worldwide. However, the effect of these changes on functional diversity (FD) remains unclear, in part because comprehensive species-level... Read More about Global impacts of climate change on avian functional diversity.

Where nothing stands still: quantifying nomadism in Australian arid-zone birds (2021)
Journal Article
Gibson, M. R., Runge, C. A., Stephens, P. A., Fuller, R. A., & Willis, S. G. (2022). Where nothing stands still: quantifying nomadism in Australian arid-zone birds. Landscape Ecology, 37(1), 191-208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-021-01343-2

Context: Nomadism is a movement strategy in response to non-seasonal environmental variability. Knowledge of nomadic species movements is poor but is necessary to understand life histories and develop appropriate conservation strategies. Objectives:... Read More about Where nothing stands still: quantifying nomadism in Australian arid-zone birds.

Phenological trends in the pre‐ and post‐breeding migration of long‐distance migratory birds (2021)
Journal Article
Lawrence, K. B., Barlow, C. R., Bensusan, K., Perez, C., & Willis, S. G. (2022). Phenological trends in the pre‐ and post‐breeding migration of long‐distance migratory birds. Global Change Biology, 28(2), 375-389. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15916

Phenological mismatch is often cited as a putative driver of population declines in long-distance migratory birds. The mechanisms and cues utilised to advance breeding ground arrival will impact the adaptability of species to further warming. Further... Read More about Phenological trends in the pre‐ and post‐breeding migration of long‐distance migratory birds.

Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change (2021)
Journal Article
Voskamp, A., Butchart, S. H., Baker, D. J., Wilsey, C. B., & Willis, S. G. (2021). Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 9, Article 625432. https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.625432

Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they... Read More about Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change.

Global inequities and political borders challenge nature conservation under climate change (2021)
Journal Article
Titley, M. A., Butchart, S. H., Jones, V. R., Whittingham, M. J., & Willis, S. G. (2021). Global inequities and political borders challenge nature conservation under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(7), Article e2011204118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011204118

Underlying sociopolitical factors have emerged as important determinants of wildlife population trends and the effectiveness of conservation action. Despite mounting research into the impacts of climate change on nature, there has been little conside... Read More about Global inequities and political borders challenge nature conservation under climate change.

Using indices of species’ potential range to inform conservation status (2021)
Journal Article
Mason, T. H., Stephens, P. A., Gilbert, G., Green, R. E., Wilson, J. D., Jennings, K., …Willis, S. G. (2021). Using indices of species’ potential range to inform conservation status. Ecological Indicators, 123, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2021.107343

Assessments of conservation status are typically based on short-term extinction risk, but the value of indicators that compare the current state of species (e.g., abundance or distribution) to potential baselines is increasingly recognised. The use o... Read More about Using indices of species’ potential range to inform conservation status.

Disentangling the relative roles of climate and land cover change in driving the long-term population trends of European migratory birds (2020)
Journal Article
Howard, C., Stephens, P., Pearce-Higgins, J., Gregory, R., Butchart, S., & Willis, S. (2020). Disentangling the relative roles of climate and land cover change in driving the long-term population trends of European migratory birds. Diversity and Distributions, 26(11), 1442-1455. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13144

Aim: Global declines in the populations of migratory species have been attributed largely to climate change and anthropogenic habitat change. However, the relative contribution of these factors on species’ breeding and non‐breeding ranges is unclear.... Read More about Disentangling the relative roles of climate and land cover change in driving the long-term population trends of European migratory birds.

Automated detection and classification of birdsong: An ensemble approach (2020)
Journal Article
Brooker, S. A., Stephens, P. A., Whittingham, M. J., & Willis, S. G. (2020). Automated detection and classification of birdsong: An ensemble approach. Ecological Indicators, 117, Article 106609. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106609

The avian dawn chorus presents a challenging opportunity to test autonomous recording units (ARUs) and associated recogniser software in the types of complex acoustic environments frequently encountered in the natural world. To date, extracting infor... Read More about Automated detection and classification of birdsong: An ensemble approach.

Rapid assessment of avian species richness and abundance using acoustic indices (2020)
Journal Article
Bradfer-Lawrence, T., Bunnefeld, N., Gardner, N., Willis, S. G., & Dent, D. H. (2020). Rapid assessment of avian species richness and abundance using acoustic indices. Ecological Indicators, 115, Article 106400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106400

Accelerating global shifts in climate and land use change are altering natural habitats and species assemblages, making management interventions crucial to halt the biodiversity crisis. Management decisions must be informed by accurate biodiversity a... Read More about Rapid assessment of avian species richness and abundance using acoustic indices.

Population responses of bird populations to climate change on two continents vary with species’ ecological traits but not with direction of change in climate suitability (2019)
Journal Article
Mason, L. R., Green, R. E., Howard, C., Stephens, P. A., Willis, S. G., Aunins, A., …Gregory, R. D. (2019). Population responses of bird populations to climate change on two continents vary with species’ ecological traits but not with direction of change in climate suitability. Climatic Change, 157(3-4), 337-354. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02549-9

Climate change is a major global threat to biodiversity with widespread impacts on ecological communities. Evidence for beneficial impacts on populations is perceived to be stronger and more plentiful than that for negative impacts, but few studies h... Read More about Population responses of bird populations to climate change on two continents vary with species’ ecological traits but not with direction of change in climate suitability.

The influence of different aspects of grouse moorland management on nontarget bird assemblages (2019)
Journal Article
Littlewood, N. A., Mason, T. H., Hughes, M., Jacques, R., Whittingham, M. J., & Willis, S. G. (2019). The influence of different aspects of grouse moorland management on nontarget bird assemblages. Ecology and Evolution, https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5613

Conflict between stakeholders with opposing interests can hamper biodiversity conservation. When conflicts become entrenched, evidence from applied ecology can reveal new ways forward for their management. In particular, where disagreement exists ove... Read More about The influence of different aspects of grouse moorland management on nontarget bird assemblages.

The limits to population density in birds and mammals (2019)
Journal Article
Stephens, P., Vieira, M., Willis, S., & Carbone, C. (2019). The limits to population density in birds and mammals. Ecology Letters, 22(4), 654-663. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13227

We address two fundamental ecological questions: what are the limits to animal population density and what determines those limits? We develop simple alternative models to predict population limits in relation to body mass. A model assuming that with... Read More about The limits to population density in birds and mammals.

Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity (2018)
Journal Article
Hof, C., Voskamp, A., Biber, M. F., Böhning-Gaese, K., Engelhardt, E. K., Niamir, A., …Hickler, T. (2018). Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(52), 13294-13299. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807745115

Climate and land-use change interactively affect biodiversity. Large-scale expansions of bioenergy have been suggested as an important component for climate change mitigation. Here we use harmonized climate and land-use projections to investigate the... Read More about Bioenergy cropland expansion may offset positive effects of climate change mitigation for global vertebrate diversity.

Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time (2018)
Journal Article
Burgess, M. D., Smith, K. W., Evans, K. L., Leech, D., Pearce-Higgins, J. W., Branston, C. J., …Phillimore, A. B. (2018). Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time. Nature Ecology and Evolution, 2, 970-975. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0543-1

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change may generate phenological mismatches that disrupt previously synchronous trophic interactions. Most work on mismatch has focused on temporal trends, whereas spatial variation in the degree of tro... Read More about Tritrophic phenological match-mismatch in space and time.

Flight range, fuel load, and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds (2018)
Journal Article
Howard, C., Stephens, P., Tobias, J., Sheard, C., Butchart, S., & Willis, S. (2018). Flight range, fuel load, and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 285(1873), Article 20172329. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2017.2329

Climate change is predicted to increase migration distances for many migratory species, but the physiological and temporal implications of longer migratory journeys have not been explored. Here, we combine information about species' flight range pote... Read More about Flight range, fuel load, and the impact of climate change on the journeys of migrant birds.

Global patterns in the divergence between phylogenetic diversity and species richness in terrestrial birds (2017)
Journal Article
Voskamp, A., Baker, D., Stephens, P., Valdes, P., & Willis, S. (2017). Global patterns in the divergence between phylogenetic diversity and species richness in terrestrial birds. Journal of Biogeography, 44(4), 709-721. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12916

Aim The conservation value of sites is often based on species richness (SR).However, metrics of phylogenetic diversity (PD) reflect a community’s evolu-tionary potential and reveal the potential for additional conservation valueabove that based purely... Read More about Global patterns in the divergence between phylogenetic diversity and species richness in terrestrial birds.

Forecasting potential routes for movement of endemic birds among important sites for biodiversity in the Albertine Rift under projected climate change (2016)
Journal Article
Bagchi, R., Hole, D. G., Butchart, S. H., Collingham, Y. C., Fishpool, L. D., Plumptre, A. J., …Willis, S. G. (2016). Forecasting potential routes for movement of endemic birds among important sites for biodiversity in the Albertine Rift under projected climate change. Ecography, 41(2), 401-413. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02712

The ability of species to shift their distributions in response to climate change may be impeded by lack of suitable climate or habitat between species’ current and future ranges. We examined the potential for climate and forest cover to limit the mo... Read More about Forecasting potential routes for movement of endemic birds among important sites for biodiversity in the Albertine Rift under projected climate change.

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species’ responses to climate change (2016)
Journal Article
Baker, D. J., Hartley, A. J., Butchart, S. H., & Willis, S. G. (2016). Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species’ responses to climate change. Global Change Biology, 22(7), 2392-2404. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13273

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to down... Read More about Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species’ responses to climate change.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents (2016)
Journal Article
Stephens, P., Mason, L., Green, R., Gregory, R., Sauer, J., Alison, J., …Willis, S. (2016). Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents. Science, 352(6281), 84-87. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4858

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitori... Read More about Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

Nationwide trophic cascades: changes in avian community structure driven by ungulates (2015)
Journal Article
Palmer, G., Stephens, P., Ward, A., & Willis, S. (2015). Nationwide trophic cascades: changes in avian community structure driven by ungulates. Scientific Reports, 5, Article 15601. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep15601

In recent decades, many ungulate populations have changed dramatically in abundance, resulting in cascading effects across ecosystems. However, studies of such effects are often limited in their spatial and temporal scope. Here, we contrast multi-spe... Read More about Nationwide trophic cascades: changes in avian community structure driven by ungulates.

The drivers of avian abundance: patterns in the relative importance of climate and land use (2015)
Journal Article
Howard, C., Stephens, P., Pearce-Higgins, J., Gregory, R., & Willis, S. (2015). The drivers of avian abundance: patterns in the relative importance of climate and land use. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 24(11), 1249-1260. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12377

Aim: Climate and land use can have important effects on the local abundances of species, but few studies have investigated the relative impacts of these factors. Here, we quantify the relative importance of climate, land use and surrounding populatio... Read More about The drivers of avian abundance: patterns in the relative importance of climate and land use.

Assessing the performance of EU nature legislation in protecting target bird species in an era of climate change (2015)
Journal Article
Sanderson, F., Pople, R., Leronymidou, C., Burfield, I., Gregory, R., Willis, S., …Donald, P. (2016). Assessing the performance of EU nature legislation in protecting target bird species in an era of climate change. Conservation Letters, 9(3), 172-180. https://doi.org/10.1111/conl.12196

International legislation forms a cornerstone of conservation, yet its efficacy is rarely quantified. We assess whether species listed on Annex I of the European Union (EU) Birds Directive, for which EU Member States are obliged to implement special... Read More about Assessing the performance of EU nature legislation in protecting target bird species in an era of climate change.

Integrating climate change vulnerability assessments from species distribution modelling and traits based approaches. (2015)
Journal Article
Willis, S., Foden, W., Baker, D., Belle, E., Burgess, N., Carr, J., …Butchart, S. (2015). Integrating climate change vulnerability assessments from species distribution modelling and traits based approaches. Biological Conservation, 190, 167-178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.05.001

To accommodate climate-driven changes in biological communities, conservation plans are increasingly making use of models to predict species’ responses to climate change. To date, species distribution models have been the most commonly used approach... Read More about Integrating climate change vulnerability assessments from species distribution modelling and traits based approaches..

Predicting the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) breeding areas in a mountainous region of central Italy (2015)
Journal Article
Bassi, E., Willis, S., Passilongo, D., Mattioli, L., & Apollonio, M. (2015). Predicting the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) breeding areas in a mountainous region of central Italy. PLoS ONE, 10(6), Article e0124698. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0124698

Wolves (Canis lupus) in Italy represent a relict west European population. They are classified as vulnerable by IUCN, though have increased in number and expanded their range in recent decades. Here we use 17 years of monitoring data (from 1993 to 20... Read More about Predicting the spatial distribution of wolf (Canis lupus) breeding areas in a mountainous region of central Italy.

Assessing climate change impacts for vertebrate fauna across the West African protected area network using regionally appropriate climate projections (2015)
Journal Article
Baker, D., Hartley, A., Burgess, N., Butchart, S., Carr, J., Smith, R., …Willis, S. (2015). Assessing climate change impacts for vertebrate fauna across the West African protected area network using regionally appropriate climate projections. Diversity and Distributions, 21(9), 991-1003. https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12337

Aim We conduct the first assessment of likely future climate change impacts for biodiversity across the West African protected area (PA) network using climate projections that capture important climate regimes (e.g. West African Monsoon) and mesoscal... Read More about Assessing climate change impacts for vertebrate fauna across the West African protected area network using regionally appropriate climate projections.

Assessing species vulnerability to climate change (2015)
Journal Article
Pacifici, M., Foden, W., Visconti, P., Watson, J., Butchart, S., Kovacs, K., …Rondinini, C. (2015). Assessing species vulnerability to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 5, 215-225. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2448

The effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly well documented, and many methods have been developed to assess species' vulnerability to climatic changes, both ongoing and projected in the coming decades. To minimize global biodiversi... Read More about Assessing species vulnerability to climate change.

Topographical variation reduces phenological mismatch between a butterfly and its nectar source (2014)
Journal Article
Hindle, B., Kerr, C., Richards, S., & Willis, S. (2015). Topographical variation reduces phenological mismatch between a butterfly and its nectar source. Journal of Insect Conservation, 19(2), 227-236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-014-9713-x

The timing of many biological events, including butterfly imago emergence, has advanced under climate change, with the rate of these phenological changes often differing among taxonomic groups. Such inter-taxa variability can lead to phenological mis... Read More about Topographical variation reduces phenological mismatch between a butterfly and its nectar source.

Prediction of mean adult survival rates of southern African birds from demographic and ecological covariates (2014)
Journal Article
Collingham, Y., Huntley, B., Altwegg, R., Barnard, P., Beveridge, O., Gregory, R., …Green, R. (2014). Prediction of mean adult survival rates of southern African birds from demographic and ecological covariates. Ibis: International Journal of Avian Science, 156(4), 741-754. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.12195

Estimates of annual survival rates of birds are valuable in a wide range of studies of population ecology and conservation. These include modelling studies to assess the impacts of climatic change or anthropogenic mortality for many species for which... Read More about Prediction of mean adult survival rates of southern African birds from demographic and ecological covariates.

Environmental change and long-term body mass declines in an alpine mammal (2014)
Journal Article
Mason, T., Apollonio, M., Chirichella, R., Willis, S., & Stephens, P. (2014). Environmental change and long-term body mass declines in an alpine mammal. Frontiers in Zoology, 11, Article 69. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12983-014-0069-6

IntroductionClimate and environmental change have driven widespread changes in body size, particularly declines, across a range of taxonomic groups in recent decades. Size declines could substantially impact on the functioning of ecosystems. To date,... Read More about Environmental change and long-term body mass declines in an alpine mammal.

Conserving mobile species (2014)
Journal Article
Runge, C., Martin, T., Possingham, H., Willis, S., & Fuller, R. (2014). Conserving mobile species. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 12(7), 395-402. https://doi.org/10.1890/130237

The distributions of many species are dynamic in space and time, and movements made by individuals range from regular and predictable migrations to erratic, resource-driven nomadism. Conserving such mobile species is challenging; the effectiveness of... Read More about Conserving mobile species.

Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects (2014)
Journal Article
Mason, T., Stephens, P., Apollonio, M., & Willis, S. (2014). Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects. Global Change Biology, 20(12), 3872-3882. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12641

The altitudinal shifts of many montane populations are lagging behind climate change. Understanding habitual, daily behavioural rhythms, and their climatic and environmental influences, could shed light on the constraints on long-term upslope range-s... Read More about Predicting potential responses to future climate in an alpine ungulate: interspecific interactions exceed climate effects.

Improving species distribution models: the value of data on abundance (2014)
Journal Article
Howard, C., Stephens, P. A., Pearce-Higgins, J. W., Gregory, R. D., & Willis, S. G. (2014). Improving species distribution models: the value of data on abundance. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5(6), 506-513. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12184

Species distribution models (SDMs) are important tools for forecasting the potential impacts of future environmental changes but debate remains over the most robust modelling approaches for making projections. Suggested improvements in SDMs vary from... Read More about Improving species distribution models: the value of data on abundance.

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty (2013)
Journal Article
Bagchi, R., Crosby, M., Huntley, B., Hole, D., Butchart, S., Collingham, Y., …Willis, S. (2013). Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty. Global Change Biology, 19(4), 1236-1248. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12123

We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity h... Read More about Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty.

Foraging ranges of immature African white-backed vultures (Gyps africanus) and their use of protected areas in southern Africa (2013)
Journal Article
Phipps, W., Willis, S., Wolter, K., & Naidoo, V. (2013). Foraging ranges of immature African white-backed vultures (Gyps africanus) and their use of protected areas in southern Africa. PLoS ONE, 8(1), Article e52813. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052813

Vultures in the Gyps genus are declining globally. Multiple threats related to human activity have caused widespread declines of vulture populations in Africa, especially outside protected areas. Addressing such threats requires the estimation of for... Read More about Foraging ranges of immature African white-backed vultures (Gyps africanus) and their use of protected areas in southern Africa.

Intraseasonal variation in reproductive effort: young males finish last (2012)
Journal Article
Mason, T., Stephens, P., Willis, S., Chirichella, R., Apollonio, M., & Richards, S. (2012). Intraseasonal variation in reproductive effort: young males finish last. The American Naturalist, 180(6), 823-830. https://doi.org/10.1086/668082

Age-dependent reproductive timing has been observed in females of a number of species; older females often breed earlier in the season and experience higher reproductive success as a result. However, to date, evidence for within-season variation in r... Read More about Intraseasonal variation in reproductive effort: young males finish last.

Prey Selection by an Apex Predator: The Importance of Sampling Uncertainty (2012)
Journal Article
Davis, M., Stephens, P., Willis, S., Bassi, E., Marcon, A., Donaggio, E., …Apollonio, M. (2012). Prey Selection by an Apex Predator: The Importance of Sampling Uncertainty. PLoS ONE, 7(10), Article e47894. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0047894

The impact of predation on prey populations has long been a focus of ecologists, but a firm understanding of the factors influencing prey selection, a key predictor of that impact, remains elusive. High levels of variability observed in prey selectio... Read More about Prey Selection by an Apex Predator: The Importance of Sampling Uncertainty.

Contrasting life histories in neighbouring populations of a large mammal (2011)
Journal Article
Mason, T., Chirichella, R., Richards, S., Stephens, P., Willis, S., & Apollonio, M. (2011). Contrasting life histories in neighbouring populations of a large mammal. PLoS ONE, 6(11), Article e28002. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0028002

Background: A fundamental life history question is how individuals should allocate resources to reproduction optimally over time (reproductive allocation). The reproductive restraint hypothesis predicts that reproductive effort (RE; the allocation of... Read More about Contrasting life histories in neighbouring populations of a large mammal.

Climate change and conservation (2010)
Book Chapter
Willis, S., Hole, D., & Huntley, B. (2010). Climate change and conservation. In N. Leader-Williams, B. Adams, & R. Smith (Eds.), Trade-offs in conservation: Deciding what to save (331-348). Wiley

Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches (2010)
Journal Article
Lindsay, S., Hole, D., Hutchinson, R., Richards, S., & Willis, S. (2010). Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches. Malaria Journal, 9, https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-9-70

Background: The world is facing an increased threat from new and emerging diseases, and there is concern that climate change will expand areas suitable for transmission of vector borne diseases. The likelihood of vivax malaria returning to the UK was... Read More about Assessing the future threat from vivax malaria in the United Kingdom using two markedly different modelling approaches.

An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations (2009)
Journal Article
Gregory, R., Willis, S., Jiguet, F., Voříšek, P., Klvaňová, A., van Strien, A., …Green, R. (2009). An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations. PLoS ONE, 4(3), Article e4678. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004678

Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use d... Read More about An indicator of the impact of climatic change on European bird populations.

Vector-borne diseases (2008)
Book Chapter
Rogers, D., Randolph, S., Lindsay, S., & Willis, S. (2008). Vector-borne diseases. In D. O. H. A. H. P. Agency (Ed.), Health effects of climate change in the UK. Crown Publishing

Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds (2008)
Journal Article
Huntley, B., Collingham, Y., Willis, S., & Green, R. (2008). Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds. PLoS ONE, 3(1), Article e1439. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0001439

Background Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estim... Read More about Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds.

Sr isotope analysis of bird feathers by TIMS: a tool to trace bird migration paths and breeding sites (2007)
Journal Article
Font, L., Nowell, G., Pearson, D., Ottley, C., & Willis, S. (2007). Sr isotope analysis of bird feathers by TIMS: a tool to trace bird migration paths and breeding sites. Journal of Analytical Atomic Spectrometry, 22(5), 513 - 522. https://doi.org/10.1039/b616328a

Here we present a methodology to analyse 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios in bird feathers with very low Sr concentration using ultra-low blank ion-exchange chemistry combined with thermal ionisation mass spectrometry. For this study, Sedge Warbler (Acroceph... Read More about Sr isotope analysis of bird feathers by TIMS: a tool to trace bird migration paths and breeding sites.

Species richness changes lag behind climate. (2006)
Journal Article
Menendez, R., Gonzalez-Megias, A., Hill, J., Braschler, B., Willis, S., Collingham, Y., …Thomas, C. (2006). Species richness changes lag behind climate. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 273, 1465-1470. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2006.3484

Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased... Read More about Species richness changes lag behind climate..

Environmental severity and variation in the reproductive traits of Impatiens glandulifera (2004)
Journal Article
Willis, S., & Hulme, P. (2004). Environmental severity and variation in the reproductive traits of Impatiens glandulifera. Functional Ecology, 18(6), 887-898. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0269-8463.2004.00907.x

1. Seed mass is widely regarded as a key plant trait, yet is notoriously variable within an individual species. This study reports the first field experiments to disentangle the relative importance of four major correlates of seed mass variation: res... Read More about Environmental severity and variation in the reproductive traits of Impatiens glandulifera.

The performance of models relating species' geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level (2004)
Journal Article
Huntley, B., Green, R., Collingham, Y., Hill, J., Willis, S., Bartlein, P., …Thomas, C. (2004). The performance of models relating species' geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level. Ecology Letters, 7(5), 417-426. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2004.00598.x

Species' climate 'envelope' models are widely used to evaluate potential climate change impacts upon species and biodiversity. Previous studies have used a variety of methods to fit models making it difficult to assess relative model performance for... Read More about The performance of models relating species' geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level.

Insights on Synergies: Models and Methods. (2003)
Book Chapter
Huntley, B., & Baxter, R. (2003). Insights on Synergies: Models and Methods. In L. Hannah, & T. Lovejoy (Eds.), Climate Change and Biodiversity: Synergistic Impacts (15-23). (Advances in Applied Biodiversity Science). CABS

Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges (2002)
Journal Article
Hill, J., Thomas, C., Fox, R., Telfer, M., Willis, S., Asher, J., & Huntley, B. (2002). Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 269(1505), 2163-2171. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2002.2134

We analyse distribution records for 51 British butterfly species to investigate altitudinal and latitudinal responses to twentieth century climate warming. Species with northern and/or montane distributions have disappeared from low elevation sites a... Read More about Responses of butterflies to twentieth century climate warming: implications for future ranges.

Does temperature limit the invasion of Impatiens glandulifera and Heracleum mantegazzianum in the UK? (2002)
Journal Article
Willis, S., & Hulme, P. (2002). Does temperature limit the invasion of Impatiens glandulifera and Heracleum mantegazzianum in the UK?. Functional Ecology, 16(4), 530-539. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2435.2002.00653.x

1. Impatiens glandulifera Royle and Heracleum mantegazzianum Sommier et Levier are widespread, non-indigenous plant species in the UK. A variety of correlational analyses suggest that their spatial extent is limited by climate, although no experiment... Read More about Does temperature limit the invasion of Impatiens glandulifera and Heracleum mantegazzianum in the UK?.

Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change (2001)
Journal Article
Warren, M., Hill, J., Thomas, J., Asher, J., Fox, R., Huntley, B., …Thomas, C. (2001). Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change. Nature, 414(6859), 65-69. https://doi.org/10.1038/35102054

Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage(1-4). Here we evaluated change... Read More about Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change.

Alien species and outbreaking species in ecosystems (2000)
Book Chapter
Hulme, P., Crawley, M., Hofgaard, A., Huntley, B., Lurtz, P., O'Connell, M., …Willis, S. (2000). Alien species and outbreaking species in ecosystems. In M. Sutton, J. Moreno, W. van der Putten, & S. Struwe (Eds.), Terrestrial ecosystem research in Europe: successes, challenges and policy (44-48). European Communities

Simulating the spread and management of alien riparian weeds: are they out of control? (2000)
Journal Article
Wadsworth, R., Collingham, Y., Willis, S., Huntley, B., & Hulme, P. (2000). Simulating the spread and management of alien riparian weeds: are they out of control?. Journal of Applied Ecology, 37, 28-38

1. This paper examines the circumstances under which control programmes may reduce the range of two widespread invasive weeds of riparian habitats: Impatiens glandulifera (Himalayan balsam) and Heracleum mantegazzianum (giant hogweed). 2. The spread... Read More about Simulating the spread and management of alien riparian weeds: are they out of control?.

Vegetation responses to local climatic changes induced by a water-storage reservoir (1998)
Journal Article
Huntley, B., Baxter, R., Lewthwaite, K., Willis, S., & Adamson, J. (1998). Vegetation responses to local climatic changes induced by a water-storage reservoir. Global ecology and biogeography letters, 7(4), 241-257

In this paper we compare results from two vegetation surveys carried out immediately before (1969-72) and c. 25 years after the controversial impoundment of a water-storage reservoir within the Upper Teesdale National Nature Reserve (NNR) in northern... Read More about Vegetation responses to local climatic changes induced by a water-storage reservoir.