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Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters? (2011)
Journal Article
Bolger, F., Stranieri, A., Wright, G., & Yearwood, J. (2011). Does the Delphi process lead to increased accuracy in group-based judgmental forecasts or does it simply induce consensus amongst judgmental forecasters?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1671-1680. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.002

Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from Social Psychological Research (2011)
Journal Article
Bolger, F., & Wright, G. (2011). Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from Social Psychological Research. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(9), 1500-1513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2011.07.007

The Delphi technique was largely developed to avoid the problems of freely interacting groups such as dominant individuals and pressure to conform to the majority view. Our review of the Social Psychological literature reveals some obstacles to Delph... Read More about Improving the Delphi process: Lessons from Social Psychological Research.

Group-based judgmental forecasting: an integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda (2011)
Journal Article
Wright, G., & Rowe, G. (2011). Group-based judgmental forecasting: an integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.012

We review and integrate the extant knowledge on group-based forecasting, paying particular attention to the papers included in this special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting. We focus on the relative merits of different methods of agg... Read More about Group-based judgmental forecasting: an integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda.