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Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes

Lunt, Daniel J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Brierley, Chris; Haywood, Alan; Inglis, Gordon N.; Izumi, Kenji; Kageyama, Masa; Kaufman, Darrell; Mauritsen, Thorsten; McClymont, Erin L.; Salzmann, Ulrich; Steinig, Sebastian; Tierney, Jessica E.; Zhao, Anni; Zhu, Jiang

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Authors

Daniel J. Lunt

Bette L. Otto-Bliesner

Chris Brierley

Alan Haywood

Gordon N. Inglis

Kenji Izumi

Masa Kageyama

Darrell Kaufman

Thorsten Mauritsen

Ulrich Salzmann

Sebastian Steinig

Jessica E. Tierney

Anni Zhao

Jiang Zhu



Abstract

The paleoclimate record provides a test-bed in which climate models can be evaluated under conditions of substantial CO2 change; however, these data are typically under-used in the process of model development and evaluation. Here, we use a set of metrics based on paleoclimate proxy observations to evaluate climate models under three past time periods. We find that the latest CMIP6/PMIP4 ensemble mean does a remarkably good job of simulating the global mean surface air temperatures of these past periods, and is improved on CMIP5/PMIP3, implying that the modern climate sensitivity of the CMIP6/PMIP4 model ensemble mean is consistent with the paleoclimate record. However, some models, in particular those with very high or very low climate sensitivity, simulate paleo temperatures that are outside the uncertainty range of the paleo proxy temperature data; in this regard, the paleo data can provide a more stringent constraint than data from the historical record. There is also consistency between models and data in terms of polar amplification, with amplification increasing with increasing global mean temperature across all three time periods. The work highlights the benefits of using the paleoclimate record in the model development and evaluation cycle, in particular for screening models with too-high or too-low climate sensitivity across a range of CO2 concentrations.

Citation

Lunt, D. J., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Brierley, C., Haywood, A., Inglis, G. N., Izumi, K., Kageyama, M., Kaufman, D., Mauritsen, T., McClymont, E. L., Salzmann, U., Steinig, S., Tierney, J. E., Zhao, A., & Zhu, J. (2024). Paleoclimate data provide constraints on climate models' large-scale response to past CO2 changes. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01531-3

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jun 26, 2024
Online Publication Date Aug 7, 2024
Publication Date Aug 31, 2024
Deposit Date Aug 22, 2024
Publicly Available Date Aug 22, 2024
Journal Communications Earth & Environment
Electronic ISSN 2662-4435
Publisher Nature Research
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 5
Issue 1
DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01531-3
Public URL https://durham-repository.worktribe.com/output/2743616

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