Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Stephens, P.A.; Mason, L.R.; Green, R.E.; Gregory, R.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Alison, J.; Aunins, A.; Brotons, L.; Butchart, S.H.M.; Campedelli, T.; Chodkiewicz, T.; Chylarecki, P.; Crowe, O.; Elts, J.; Escandell, V.; Foppen, R.P.B.; Heldbjerg, H.; Herrando, S.; Husby, M.; Jiguet, F.; Lehikoinen, A.; Lindström, Å; Noble, D.G.; Paquet, J.; Reif, J.; Sattler, T.; Szép, T.; Teufelbauer, N.; Trautmann, S.; van Strien, A.J.; van Turnhout, C.A.M.; Vorisek, P.; Willis, S.G.

doi:10.1126/science.aac4858

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents

Stephens, P.A.; Mason, L.R.; Green, R.E.; Gregory, R.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Alison, J.; Aunins, A.; Brotons, L.; Butchart, S.H.M.; Campedelli, T.; Chodkiewicz, T.; Chylarecki, P.; Crowe, O.; Elts, J.; Escandell, V.; Foppen, R.P.B.; Heldbjerg, H.; Herrando, S.; Husby, M.; Jiguet, F.; Lehikoinen, A.; Lindström, Å; Noble, D.G.; Paquet, J.; Reif, J.; Sattler, T.; Szép, T.; Teufelbauer, N.; Trautmann, S.; van Strien, A.J.; van Turnhout, C.A.M.; Vorisek, P.; Willis, S.G.

Authors

Professor Philip Stephens philip.stephens@durham.ac.uk
Professor

L.R. Mason

R.E. Green

R.D. Gregory

J.R. Sauer

J. Alison

A. Aunins

L. Brotons

S.H.M. Butchart

T. Campedelli

T. Chodkiewicz

P. Chylarecki

O. Crowe

J. Elts

V. Escandell

R.P.B. Foppen

H. Heldbjerg

S. Herrando

M. Husby

F. Jiguet

A. Lehikoinen

Å Lindström

D.G. Noble

J. Paquet

J. Reif

T. Sattler

T. Szép

N. Teufelbauer

S. Trautmann

A.J. van Strien

C.A.M. van Turnhout

P. Vorisek

Professor Stephen Willis s.g.willis@durham.ac.uk
Professor

Abstract

Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Citation

Stephens, P., Mason, L., Green, R., Gregory, R., Sauer, J., Alison, J., …Willis, S. (2016). Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents. Science, 352(6281), 84-87. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4858

Journal Article Type	Article
Acceptance Date	Feb 25, 2016
Online Publication Date	Apr 1, 2016
Publication Date	Apr 1, 2016
Deposit Date	Mar 1, 2016
Publicly Available Date	Mar 16, 2016
Journal	Science
Print ISSN	0036-8075
Electronic ISSN	1095-9203
Publisher	American Association for the Advancement of Science
Peer Reviewed	Peer Reviewed
Volume	352
Issue	6281
Pages	84-87
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac4858

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Copyright Statement
This is the author’s version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on<br /> 01 Apr 2016: Vol. 352, Issue 6281, pp. 84-87 DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4858.