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Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis

Vermaat, Jan E.; Hellmann, Fritz A.; van Teeffelen, Astrid J.A.; van Minnen, Jelle; Alkemade, Rob; Billeter, Regula; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Boitani, Luigi; Cabeza, Mar; Feld, Christian K.; Huntley, Brian; Paterson, James; WallisDeVries, Michiel F.

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Jan E. Vermaat

Fritz A. Hellmann

Astrid J.A. van Teeffelen

Jelle van Minnen

Rob Alkemade

Regula Billeter

Carl Beierkuhnlein

Luigi Boitani

Mar Cabeza

Christian K. Feld

Brian Huntley

James Paterson

Michiel F. WallisDeVries


Current observed as well as projected changes in biodiversity are the result of multiple interacting factors, with land use and climate change often marked as most important drivers. We aimed to disentangle the separate impacts of these two for sets of vascular plant, bird, butterfly and dragonfly species listed as characteristic for European dry grasslands and wetlands, two habitats of high and threatened biodiversity. We combined articulations of the four frequently used SRES climate scenarios and associated land use change projections for 2030, and assessed their impact on population trends in species (i.e. whether they would probably be declining, stable or increasing). We used the BIOSCORE database tool, which allows assessment of the effects of a range of environmental pressures including climate change as well as land use change. We updated the species lists included in this tool for our two habitat types. We projected species change for two spatial scales: the EU27 covering most of Europe, and the more restricted biogeographic region of ‘Continental Europe’. Other environmental pressures modelled for the four scenarios than land use and climate change generally did not explain a significant part of the variance in species richness change. Changes in characteristic bird and dragonfly species were least pronounced. Land use change was the most important driver for vascular plants in both habitats and spatial scales, leading to a decline in 50–100% of the species included, whereas climate change was more important for wetland dragonflies and birds (40–50 %). Patterns of species decline were similar in continental Europe and the EU27 for wetlands but differed for dry grasslands, where a substantially lower proportion of butterflies and birds declined in continental Europe, and 50 % of bird species increased, probably linked to a projected increase in semi-natural vegetation. In line with the literature using climate envelope models, we found little divergence among the four scenarios. Our findings suggest targeted policies depending on habitat and species group. These are, for dry grasslands, to reduce land use change or its effects and to enhance connectivity, and for wetlands to mitigate climate change effects.


Vermaat, J. E., Hellmann, F. A., van Teeffelen, A. J., van Minnen, J., Alkemade, R., Billeter, R., …WallisDeVries, M. F. (2017). Differentiating the effects of climate and land use change on European biodiversity: A scenario analysis. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 46(3), 277-290.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 14, 2016
Online Publication Date Nov 1, 2016
Publication Date Apr 1, 2017
Deposit Date Mar 1, 2017
Publicly Available Date Nov 1, 2017
Journal AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment
Print ISSN 0044-7447
Electronic ISSN 1654-7209
Publisher Springer
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 46
Issue 3
Pages 277-290


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