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Predicting elections for multiple countries using Twitter and polls

Tsakalidis, Adam; Papadopoulos, S.; Cristea, A.I.; Kompatsiaris, Yiannis

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Authors

Adam Tsakalidis

S. Papadopoulos

Yiannis Kompatsiaris



Abstract

The authors' work focuses on predicting the 2014 European Union elections in three different countries using Twitter and polls. Past works in this domain relying strictly on Twitter data have been proven ineffective. Others, using polls as their ground truth, have raised questions regarding the contribution of Twitter data for this task. Here, the authors treat this task as a multivariate time-series forecast, extracting Twitter- and poll-based features and training different predictive algorithms. They've achieved better results than several past works and the commercial baseline.

Citation

Tsakalidis, A., Papadopoulos, S., Cristea, A., & Kompatsiaris, Y. (2015). Predicting elections for multiple countries using Twitter and polls. IEEE Intelligent Systems, 30(2), 10-17. https://doi.org/10.1109/mis.2015.17

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jan 5, 2015
Online Publication Date Jan 26, 2015
Publication Date Mar 1, 2015
Deposit Date Jul 11, 2018
Publicly Available Date Jul 31, 2018
Journal IEEE Intelligent Systems
Print ISSN 1541-1672
Publisher Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 30
Issue 2
Pages 10-17
DOI https://doi.org/10.1109/mis.2015.17
Related Public URLs http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/75812/

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