Skip to main content

Research Repository

Advanced Search

Competing risks survival analysis of ruptured gas pipelines: A nonparametric predictive approach

Tee, Kong Fah; Pesinis, Konstantinos; Coolen-Maturi, Tahani

Competing risks survival analysis of ruptured gas pipelines: A nonparametric predictive approach Thumbnail


Authors

Kong Fah Tee

Konstantinos Pesinis



Abstract

Risk analysis based on historical failure data can form an integral part of the integrity management of oil and gas pipelines. The scarcity and lack of consistency in the information provided by major incident databases leads to non-specific results of the risk status of pipes under consideration. In order to evaluate pipeline failure rates, the rate of occurrence of failures is commonly adopted. This study aims to derive inductive inferences from the 179 reported ruptures of a set of onshore gas transmission pipelines, reported in the PHMSA database for the period from 2002 to 2014. Failure causes are grouped in an integrated manner and the impact of each group in the probability of rupture is examined. Towards this, nonparametric predictive inference (NPI) is employed for competing risks survival analysis. This method provides interval probabilities, also known as imprecise reliability, in that probabilities and survival functions are quantified via upper and lower bounds. The focus is on a future pipe component (segment) that ruptures due to a specific failure cause among a range of competing risks. The results can be used to examine and implement optimal maintenance strategies based on relative risk prioritization.

Citation

Tee, K. F., Pesinis, K., & Coolen-Maturi, T. (2019). Competing risks survival analysis of ruptured gas pipelines: A nonparametric predictive approach. International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 175, Article 103919. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2019.06.001

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jun 5, 2019
Online Publication Date Jun 12, 2019
Publication Date Aug 31, 2019
Deposit Date Jun 13, 2019
Publicly Available Date Jun 12, 2020
Journal International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping
Print ISSN 0308-0161
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 175
Article Number 103919
DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijpvp.2019.06.001

Files







You might also like



Downloadable Citations